1. Oil just dipped below $98.
2. new JPMorgam/Goldman Sachs report out that says if shipping Russian oil gets banned as is now being discussed, oil could hit $380 a barrel.
3. Another analyst says if recession happens, oil will dip to $50.
4. The airlines are cutting back on flights because they have too much demand and not enough staff in the air and on the ground.
5. Car and trucks sales are way down- due to a shortage of supply of components.
6. Homes sales are down, listings are down (lack of supply?) sale prices are up and still going up. Same for boats, travel trailers, 4 wheelers, you name it.
7. Seems like no recession yet? Just a shortage of supply? And business jacking prices because they can? Which snowballs into inflation? Other than the price of oil which is controlled by a very small number of suppliers and they are not increasing the supply.
I think oil and natgas goes way up by say October, no more Stratigic Oil Supply (now 1 million barrels a day!), Europe will be out of Russian natural gas, the natgas export terminal in Texas will be back shipping to Europe as the price they pay is way higher than domestically, and probably North American refineries will be doing the same with gasoline and diesel refined product.
The bankers, economists, and media are all telling us we’re heading for a recession, maybe all that preaching will drive us into one? Employment levels are so high and a huge amount of jobs not getting filled, in my memory a recession went hand in hand with high unemployment. And a drop in home prices, increase in repossessions of homes, vehicles, travel trailers, boats.
Still lots of money around buying everything even at these crazy prices?
Inflation is here but recession may not happen. For a long while.